Adrian Morris of True North argues institutional adoption may end Bitcoin's boom-bust cycles, creating a 'stairway to heaven' to $1M instead of a blow-off top.
Timestamp Overview
[00:00:00 - 00:05:16] Is the Bitcoin Cycle Changing?
- Adrian Morris introduces his theory that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle might be changing or even ending.
- He argues that past boom-and-bust cycles were driven more by government stimulus (free money) than by Bitcoin’s own “halving” events.
- Adrian explains that stimulus money encourages risky speculation, while the current wave of money from big financial firms (liquidity) seeks high-quality assets.
- He suggests that with institutions and corporations now consistently buying Bitcoin, the big incentive to sell off Bitcoin for other crypto assets is much lower than before.
[00:05:16 - 00:09:22] Early Bitcoin and “Easy Money”
- Pete and Adrian discuss whether global economic trends affected Bitcoin even in its earliest, smallest days (2011-2013).
- Adrian believes that the “easy money” policies from governments after the 2008 financial crisis created an environment where people were more willing to take a chance on a new idea like Bitcoin.
- He explains that people were looking for new places to put their money, pushing them to explore riskier assets.
- Adrian connects the early interest in Silicon Valley startups and Bitcoin to this widespread availability of cheap capital, which made it easier for new ideas to get funding and attention.
[00:09:22 - 00:14:43] Stimulus, Speculation, and Past Bubbles
- Adrian shares how his own introduction to Bitcoin was through understanding money and economics, not just technology.
- He uses the 2017 crypto bubble as a perfect example of his theory that “stimulus seeks speculation,” where easy money fueled a frenzy in altcoins.
- Adrian points out that during that time, many people simply rotated their Bitcoin profits into altcoins to chase even bigger, faster gains, causing huge price swings.
- He notes that a lot of this “hot money” came from people speculating with capital they might not have invested otherwise, like government stimulus checks during the COVID era.
[00:14:43 - 00:20:58] The “Stairway to Heaven” Thesis
- Adrian contrasts past cycles with the current one, highlighting how stimulus from government handouts is different from liquidity provided by lower interest rates.
- He introduces his “Stairway to Heaven” idea: instead of a single massive price peak followed by a crash, Bitcoin’s price will climb in steady steps.
- He points out that Bitcoin’s price has already climbed to new highs despite high interest rates and global conflicts, which would have caused crashes in the past.
- This stability, he argues, is because big institutions are buying and holding, creating a strong price floor that allows for more gradual, sustained growth.
[00:20:58 - 00:26:36] Will Old-Timers Crash the Market?
- Pete raises the point that longtime Bitcoin holders (“OGs”) often sell large amounts when the price gets high, which could cause a crash.
- Adrian counters this by pointing to a recent example where someone sold 80,000 BTC, yet the price only dropped by a relatively small amount ($5,000).
- He explains that as Bitcoin’s total market value grows, it becomes much harder for single sellers to have a major impact on the price.
- Adrian also adds that while some OGs sell, others are using their Bitcoin to fund new companies, showing that not everyone is cashing out.
[00:26:36 - 00:32:19] Are the Big Institutions Truly on Board?
- Pete questions whether large financial firms like BlackRock are truly committed to Bitcoin or if they will sell when things get volatile.
- Adrian argues that these firms don’t need to believe in Bitcoin’s philosophy; their motivation is greed. They make more money in fees when Bitcoin’s price is higher.
- This financial incentive aligns their goals with those of Bitcoin holders, as they are motivated to promote Bitcoin’s success to their own clients for years to come.
- He believes these institutions are pitching Bitcoin to their clients as a long-term investment, which creates a stable, long-term investor base.
[00:32:19 - 00:41:55] Ethereum ETFs and Corporate Risk
- Adrian explains that institutions pushing for an Ethereum ETF doesn’t mean they are abandoning Bitcoin; it means they are opportunistic and want to profit from multiple assets.
- The discussion shifts to the risks of companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets, especially those that used debt to buy it.
- Adrian uses MicroStrategy as an example, explaining that they are structured to avoid forced selling. They primarily issue new stock, not debt, to buy Bitcoin.
- He argues that corporations are much better equipped to handle price drops than individuals, as a falling stock price is the first line of defense, not selling their Bitcoin reserves.
[041:55 - 00:53:50] The Future of Crypto Treasuries & Final Summary
- Adrian expresses strong skepticism about companies creating treasuries based on various altcoins, calling himself “completely bearish” on the idea.
- He reluctantly concedes that Ethereum-based treasuries might succeed, but only because Ethereum is becoming a major platform for stablecoins, which could give it lasting value.
- Adrian concludes by summarizing his “Stairway to Heaven” thesis: the combination of institutional buyers, committed corporations, and decreasing volatility is creating a new, more mature growth pattern for Bitcoin.
- He compares Bitcoin’s current moment to when the Gold ETF launched, which was followed by years of steady, ladder-like price increases rather than a single explosive rally.
Notable Quotes
Changing Cycles
The incentive to rotate out of Bitcoin is far more reduced than it has been in previous cycles.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Market Psychology
Liquidity seeks quality while stimulus seeks speculation.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Institutional Impact
If the institutions are creating this persistent bid, and then we have corporations creating this persistent bid, we now have a base.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Market Maturity
The larger Bitcoin's market cap gets, the more extreme the sell pressure is gonna have to get to cause those dips.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Institutional Motivation
It is not a matter of BlackRock or the institutions like Fidelity being convicted. It's a matter of them being greedy.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Aligned Interests
It's a matter of their goals and our goals in terms of Bitcoin becoming the biggest thing are now aligned.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Digital Asset Treasuries
Now, digital asset treasury companies, I'm completely bearish on.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
On Ethereum
Ethereum, unfortunately, I think is going to be our little brother that we have to deal with.
Adrian Morris @Adrian_R_Morris
Questions & Answers
Question 1: Is the Bitcoin four-year cycle over?
Answer: Adrian Morris believes that the cycle is, at the very least, fundamentally changing. He argues that past cycles were driven by government stimulus creating speculative frenzies. The current cycle is defined by institutional and corporate adoption, which creates a more stable base of demand and reduces volatility, suggesting the old boom-bust pattern may not repeat.
Question 2: What is the “Stairway to Heaven” scenario for Bitcoin?
Answer: Adrian Morris describes this as a new potential growth pattern for Bitcoin. Instead of a massive, explosive price peak followed by a severe crash (a “blow-off top”), he foresees a more gradual and sustained climb. The price would move up in steps, consolidate at new levels, and continue climbing, driven by a persistent bid from long-term institutional and corporate buyers.
Question 3: Won’t old Bitcoin holders (OGs) selling at the tops crash the price like before?
Answer: Adrian Morris argues that this is less of a threat now. He explains that Bitcoin’s market capitalization is so large that it can absorb massive sell orders without crashing. He cites a recent example where 80,000 BTC was sold with only a minor price dip, suggesting that the persistent demand from new institutional buyers is strong enough to offset this selling pressure.
Question 4: Why should we trust institutions like BlackRock to remain committed to Bitcoin?
Answer: According to Adrian Morris, their commitment isn’t based on belief in Bitcoin’s philosophy but on pure financial incentive, or “greed.” These firms earn fees based on the total value of the assets they manage. The higher Bitcoin’s price goes, the more money they make. This aligns their business goals with Bitcoin’s price appreciation, making them motivated to ensure its continued success.
Question 5: Are corporate Bitcoin treasuries, like MicroStrategy, too risky because of their debt?
Answer: Adrian Morris explains that these companies are structured to minimize that risk. He notes that a company like MicroStrategy primarily uses funds from selling new shares of its stock (equity) to buy Bitcoin, not just debt. The debt they do take on is often long-term and uncollateralized by their Bitcoin holdings, meaning a price drop won’t trigger a margin call or force them to sell their Bitcoin.
People and Organizations Mentioned
- Adrian Morris: (@Adrian_R_Morris) Guest speaker from True North, who presents the “Stairway to Heaven” thesis for Bitcoin’s price.
- Pete Rizzo: (@pete_rizzo_) Host of the podcast and a well-known Bitcoin writer and historian.
- True North: (@MSTR_TrueNorth) An influential collective on X (formerly Twitter) that provides analysis on Bitcoin treasury companies and corporate adoption.
- BlockWorks: A financial media and events company focused on digital assets, and the producer of the podcast.
- Bitwise: A crypto asset management firm. Its CIO, Matt Hogan, was mentioned for his view that “this time is different” for the Bitcoin cycle.
- Michael Turpin: Author of “Bitcoin Supercycle,” mentioned as taking the counterpoint view that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature will continue.
- BlackRock: The world’s largest asset manager, mentioned frequently for launching a spot Bitcoin ETF and legitimizing the asset for institutional investors.
- Fidelity: A major asset manager that also launched a spot Bitcoin ETF, contributing to the wave of institutional adoption.
- MicroStrategy (Strategy): A business intelligence firm led by Michael Saylor, famous for being the first public company to adopt a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Adrian uses it as a key example of corporate conviction.
- F2Pool: A large Bitcoin mining pool, mentioned for its history of selling large amounts of Bitcoin and impacting the market price in previous cycles.
- Galaxy: A digital asset financial services firm founded by Mike Novogratz. Mentioned in the context of a “galaxy whale” selling 80,000 BTC.
- Chamath Palihapitiya: A venture capitalist and early Facebook executive, mentioned for his realization that the “easy money” environment of the 2010s, not just genius, fueled Silicon Valley’s success.
- Tucker Carlson: A media personality whose podcast was mentioned as the platform where Chamath Palihapitiya discussed the “easy money” era.
- Joe Lubin: Founder of ConsenSys and a co-founder of Ethereum, mentioned as a type of figure leading the charge for altcoin accumulation vehicles.
- Tron: A blockchain platform, mentioned as having a “digital asset treasury” for its native token.
- Semler Scientific: A medical technology company that recently adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy, mentioned as part of the corporate adoption trend.
- MetaPlanet: A Japanese investment firm that has also adopted a Bitcoin treasury strategy, following MicroStrategy’s model.
- BitDigital, SharkLink, BitMine: Mentioned as companies that have started Ethereum treasuries.