Jack Mallers discusses Bitcoin & gold as safe haven assets amid global trade tensions and declining U.S. dollar dominance. Tune in for insights!
Title: Bitcoin & Gold: New Safe Haven Assets in 2025 Description: Jack Mallers discusses Bitcoin & gold as safe haven assets amid global trade tensions and declining U.S. dollar dominance. Tune in for insights!
Timestamp Overview
[00:00:16 - 00:00:16] Bitcoin & Gold: New Safe Havens Amidst US-China Trade War & Rare Earth Weaponization
- Jack Mallers discusses Bitcoin’s potential as a safe haven asset in the context of current macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions, specifically focusing on the US-China trade war.
- He highlights China’s dominance in rare earth mineral production and how it’s being used as leverage against the US, impacting industries from automobiles to defense. He emphasizes that this dependence is a national security threat, particularly concerning US military production.
- Mallers points out that Bloomberg, a mainstream financial news source, has confirmed his earlier assertions about China’s strategic use of rare earth minerals, validating concerns raised within the Bitcoin community.
- He argues that the US doesn’t hold as much leverage in trade negotiations as it projects and that China’s control over essential resources puts the US in a vulnerable position, necessitating potentially increased money printing.
- The episode includes a video from Senator Marco Rubio, which further emphasizes the severity of the situation and the US’s reliance on China for critical materials.
[00:15:23 - 00:15:23] Industrial Capacity: A Critical Geopolitical Priority
- Loss of industrial capacity has weakened the US economy, global standing, and national security.
- Access to raw materials and industrial capacity are now central to geopolitical decisions and priorities.
- China’s control over processing key materials, like rare earth minerals, puts the rest of the world at a disadvantage.
- The US must rebuild domestic industrial capacity and diversify global supply chains to reduce reliance on potential adversaries.
- Current foreign policy decisions are already being constrained by this lack of industrial independence.
[00:18:22 - 00:18:22] Shift to Neutral Reserve Assets: Gold, Bitcoin Rise as Dollar, Treasuries Falter
- Declining US Power and Influence: The speaker argues the US is losing its global standing, citing the need for domestic production and a weaker dollar to strengthen the economy, and pointing to declining US dollar reserves held by central banks. They suggest the US lacks leverage with China and tariffs are ineffective.
- Gold’s Rise as a Reserve Asset: Gold is surpassing the Euro as the second largest reserve asset held by central banks. This is driven by concerns over sanctions and the weakening role of major currencies, particularly the US dollar, which has fallen below 50% of global reserves. Central bank gold purchases are increasing significantly.
- Bitcoin’s Potential as a Neutral Reserve Asset: The speaker compares gold’s characteristics to Bitcoin, arguing Bitcoin fulfills many of the same roles – store of value, inflation hedge, portfolio diversifier, geopolitical diversifier, etc. – and is potentially a superior asset due to its digital nature and resistance to sanctions.
- Treasuries Losing Safe Haven Status: US Treasury bonds are no longer functioning as a safe haven asset, with yields rising despite geopolitical instability. This is contrasted with gold and Bitcoin’s performance, further supporting the argument for a shift towards neutral reserve assets.
- Dwindling US Strategic Petroleum Reserve: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at historic lows, leaving the country vulnerable to oil price shocks and limiting its ability to influence global oil markets. This is presented as another indicator of declining US strength.
[00:31:23 - 00:31:23] Bitcoin & Gold: The New Safe Havens as Bonds Collapse & Dollar Declines
- Decentralized Trade & Gold: China’s increasing exports to Saudi Arabia illustrate a move towards settling trade outside the US dollar, potentially utilizing gold and China’s own payment networks.
- Bonds Down, Bitcoin & Gold Up: A chart comparison shows treasury bond ETFs significantly declining while gold and Bitcoin are rising, suggesting a shift away from traditional fixed income investments. Mallers argues this signifies a new monetary regime.
- Bitcoin as Primary Safe Haven: Mallers believes Bitcoin and gold are becoming the new safe haven assets, with Bitcoin ultimately surpassing gold due to its superior characteristics. He predicts Bitcoin will outperform gold by a factor of two or three.
- Gradual Transition: The shift away from the US dollar as the world reserve currency is happening gradually, contrary to dramatic collapse scenarios. Mallers emphasizes the importance of paying attention to these trends.
- Bullish on Bitcoin: Mallers expresses extreme optimism about Bitcoin’s future, viewing it as a superior alternative to traditional investments like bonds in the changing global financial landscape.
[00:36:30 - 00:36:30] Trump’s “America First” Policy & Bitcoin’s Inevitable Rise: A Q&A with Jack Mallers
- Trump’s “America First” investment policy encourages foreign investors to divest from US assets: This policy aims to reverse the flow of dollars leaving the US for imported goods and then being reinvested back into US assets like stocks and real estate, contributing to wealth disparity.
- Potential market crash mitigated by money printing: While the policy could initially cause asset prices to crash, the speaker believes the US government will print money to prop up markets, particularly the stock market, which is crucial to the American financial system.
- Bitcoin and gold to outperform traditional assets: The speaker predicts Bitcoin and gold will benefit from this policy as foreign investors seek neutral assets, especially as capital controls restrict their access to US markets. Bitcoin is specifically highlighted as the biggest winner.
- Bitcoin’s inevitability as a monetary asset: The speaker argues Bitcoin’s engineered hardness, combined with its desirable monetary properties, makes it an inevitable choice in a world of increasingly debased fiat currencies. He emphasizes that not adopting Bitcoin leads to relative impoverishment.
- Bitcoin subject to market cycles despite long-term growth: While bullish on Bitcoin’s future, the speaker acknowledges the likelihood of future price corrections and volatility driven by human psychology, albeit in a structurally different market environment due to global liquidity and macro factors.
[00:50:10 - 00:50:10] Fed Irrelevance, Fiscal Dominance, and Bitcoin’s Ascent
- The speaker believes Jerome Powell will eventually be forced to lower interest rates due to decreasing inflation, but doubts the Fed’s actions significantly impact the market currently. They point to Bitcoin’s price increase despite rising interest rates as evidence.
- Fiscal dominance is suggested as the prevailing market condition, with government spending and actions like those of Scott Bessent holding more sway than monetary policy.
- The speaker believes firing Powell would be dangerous due to its potential impact on trust in the dollar. They see current market conditions as generally favoring a weaker dollar and rising asset prices.
- The US accumulating Bitcoin for a strategic reserve is considered unlikely in the near future, citing the current administration’s focus on other pressing issues and lack of political capital. The speaker believes a budget-neutral approach would be required.
- Circle’s business model is questioned, with the speaker expressing confusion about its profitability compared to Tether and the lack of a clear incentive for Americans to use USDC.
[00:55:37 - 00:55:37] Jack Mallers on Circle, Tether, Bitcoin Mining, and Corporate Bitcoin Ownership
- Circle (USDC) Critique: The speaker believes Circle’s business model is unsustainable, relying on payments to partners like Coinbase for adoption. They contrast this with Tether, arguing it serves a real need by providing dollar access to the unbanked.
- Bitcoin Mining Concerns: The speaker finds Bitcoin mining a challenging business due to the intense competition for cheap energy. They question the logic of mining companies raising funds to buy Bitcoin instead of mining it.
- Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment: The speaker explains Bitcoin’s difficulty adjustment mechanism, which automatically adjusts the mining difficulty based on available energy, ensuring network stability.
- Bitcoin Transaction Explanation (Simplified): The speaker briefly touches upon Bitcoin transactions involving inputs, outputs, and cryptographic signing to transfer ownership, but acknowledges a deeper explanation is beyond the scope of the current conversation.
- Corporate Bitcoin Ownership Concerns: The speaker expresses worry about corporations like MicroStrategy (MSTR) accumulating large amounts of Bitcoin, potentially centralizing control and going against Bitcoin’s original decentralized vision.
[01:03:02 - 01:03:02] Bitcoin for Everyone: Mallers on Wall Street, Strike Updates, and Life Balance
Bitcoin is for everyone, including Wall Street: The speaker, CEO of a large corporate treasury, argues against excluding institutional investors from Bitcoin, emphasizing its importance as hard money accessible to all. He believes Wall Street needs Bitcoin as much as anyone, especially given current market instability.
Speaker’s role in bridging Bitcoin and traditional finance: He co-founded his company to provide Wall Street with access to a reputable Bitcoin platform run by Bitcoiners, focusing on transparency and Bitcoin technology. He also founded Strike, a platform facilitating low-cost Bitcoin acquisition.
Personal Bitcoin strategy involves loans and holding: He uses Bitcoin-backed loans to cover expenses, constantly refinancing without selling his Bitcoin. He advises against over-leveraging and recommends borrowing a small percentage of one’s holdings.
Importance of life balance for Bitcoiners: He acknowledges the potential for Bitcoin burnout and emphasizes the importance of balance, sharing his personal strategies like spending time with his partner, enjoying the outdoors, and prioritizing health and fitness.
Upcoming projects and closing remarks: He is preparing a keynote speech for the Bitcoin Prague conference focused on generational burdens and Bitcoin as an ethical code. He reiterated his bullish stance on Bitcoin, encouraged feedback, and signed off with a message of community and optimism.
Notable Quotes
Bitcoin and Macro
Boy, it's a good day to be alive, and it's better with Bitcoin in it.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin Price
I am talking to you at a Bitcoin price of $108,740. That puts our market capitalization, our being Bitcoins, at $2.16 trillion US dollars.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin All-Time High
Bitcoin's all-time high remains at $111,980. We are just under 3% from bitcoins all-time high which was established on May 22nd 2025
Jack Mallers
War and Violence
I am just anti-violence, period.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin and War
I really do believe that Bitcoin can demonetize war and we can have a peaceful revolution
Jack Mallers
Fiat and War
When we introduced fiat, all of a sudden, governments can strip away the liquid wealth from their population without having to ask for it via inflation, via printing money.
Jack Mallers
China and Rare Earth Magnets
China has turned the tables, essentially halting exports of the one thing the modern world cannot live without, rare earth magnets.
Jack Mallers
US Dollar and Military
A large part of the backing of the US dollar is the US military, is violence.
Jack Mallers
Petrodollar
It was basically the oil backed dollar.
Jack Mallers
China and US Military
It's a national security threat that the U.S. needs China for weapons.
Jack Mallers
China's Leverage
China is weaponizing its dominance in rare earths to shift the balance in negotiations.
Jack Mallers
US and China Negotiations
We don't have the upper hand with China.
Jack Mallers
Gold as Reserve Asset
Gold has passed us the euro as the second Asset holding cash balances
Jack Mallers
Sanctions and Currency Erosion
Moreover, concerns related to sanctions and the possible erosion of the role of major currencies were cited by some central banks in emerging and developing economies.
Jack Mallers
US Treasuries and Safe Haven
As I've been highlighting recently, don't look to U.S. treasuries for, quote, safe haven or, quote, flight to quality flows.
Mohammed El-Erian
Bitcoin as Inevitable Winner
Bitcoin is going to be the inevitable winner over the coming decades of the world we are rapidly ascending towards.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin and Fiat
Bitcoin and gold, the new safe haven assets, eventually Bitcoin only. There is no second best.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin and Wall Street
Bitcoin is for everyone. Everyone needs hard money.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin and Control
As far as control goes there is no such thing as owning more Bitcoin giving you more control
Jack Mallers
Monopolization of Money
The monopolization and control of money is an ethical and moral violation.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin and Energy
Bitcoin is able to measure how much energy is being contributed to mine Bitcoin.
Jack Mallers
Bitcoin Difficulty Adjustment
Bitcoin would get exponentially harder to mine.
Jack Mallers
Questions & Answers
Question 1: Won’t the economy crash if Trump gets out all foreign investors who sell their real estate and stocks, etc.?
Answer: Yeah, so the question is, you know, so Trump came out with this American first investment policy in February, which basically more or less said, get your money out of the country. And the reason he’s doing this is because Trump and the administration, and this is kind of bipartisan at the end of the day, has been very clear in saying, you know, we print dollars, we ship those dollars out to import goods and services. You can think of these dollars as U.S. store credits. They can’t really be spent anywhere else instead of inside the United States. So countries then take all these U.S. store credits that they’ve been importing from the United States and they go shopping. And traditionally, it was just buy bonds. No one wants those pieces of shit anymore. So they buy Mag-7 stock. They buy real estate. They buy farmland. They buy all of our scarce, desirable goods. That’s not good for us. That’s not good for Americans either. You’re creating this wealth gap. You’re driving up the price of assets, which are predominantly owned by those on the coast. Call it California and New York. And you’re making the middle of America significantly poorer. And this has gotten so bad that Trump won the popular vote by appealing to the middle of America. So anyways, all that to say, it’s a good question. If everyone has to sell their real estate, sell their stocks, isn’t that going to cause these assets to crash? Yes, until we print money to make them go up again. So it is in my opinion that the US is going to provide the liquidity to financial markets to juice things like the S&P 500. They cannot afford for these things to fall. Now, I think things like Bitcoin will grow to outperform and break correlation with things like the NASDAQ and things like the S&P 500. And I think that there will be different levels of performance because China can take its trade surplus and plow it into Bitcoin. China can’t do that for the NASDAQ anymore. So Bitcoin, gold, and the MAG 7 are all going to benefit from U.S. money printing. But only Bitcoin and gold are going to benefit from China not being able to buy the Max 7 anymore. And they have to find a neutral asset that protects their time and energy. Does that make sense? So I think Bitcoin and gold, Bitcoin specifically, is going to outperform anything and everything by a long mile, by a long, long, long mile. But I don’t think the U.S. can afford to have assets go down. For those that don’t know, a large revenue stream for the United States to pay its interest expense, so pay the interest on its debt, is capital gains tax receipts. And so if all of a sudden Americans are poor and they don’t sell their assets because their assets aren’t up and then they don’t go spend it in the economy, to this listener’s question, And that’d be a huge problem. So my suspicion is they’re not going to let these assets go down They’re just going to print the money to ensure they go up which would bring the dollar down This is the whole idea is that the only way out is by debasing the currency No matter how you slice it It’s the only way out unless we live through some severe severe austerity where we go through a great depression times a million like the greatest depression we’ve ever been through or Which, by the way, would also be good for Bitcoin in a different, more, you know, fucked up way. But it’d be good for Bitcoin nonetheless. You know, Bitcoin wins at the end of the day no matter what. The dollar has to go down at the end of the day no matter what. The problem is austerity never works because people can vote for someone else. You know, that’s the problem with politics and stuff is you can’t actually do the hard things and do the proof of work because people will just vote you out. So if we go through austerity and there are cars on fire in the street and Trump’s getting impeached, And so, you know the politically palatable way through is to continue to print money and to base the currency It’s my in my opinion
Question 2: Does the dollar decline first and then the market or does the market decline causing the dollar decline to decline?
Answer: I don’t think the the market kind of piggybacking off my my last answer I don’t think the market is going to decline Market meaning the stock market, I think you’re saying, I’m not sure though. I don’t know if you’re talking about the wider economy, but the only things that matter are the stock market. The stock market is the de facto savings account for the world more broadly, soon it won’t be, and more particularly to the American people.
Question 3: Do you think this unwind of Bitcoin and gold becoming the safe haven assets instead of the American bond market was inevitable? Would this have happened no matter who is the president?
Answer: Yes
Question 4: Do you think there are going to be no pullbacks then in Bitcoin similar to gold?
Answer: To say that gold didn’t have any pullbacks is probably incorrect. I mean gold just operates over much longer, you know market cycles I think Bitcoin market cycles are likely different than the past Hold on though Don’t don’t you dare clip this and put it on Twitter that I said this time is different I do believe we will have bull and bear markets I absolutely do because I think that’s just human psychology that’s reaching euphoria And then that’s you know you have sellers that overwhelm the market and then people can despair panic so I think human beings are predominantly what causes, our emotions are what cause these bull and bear cycles in my opinion.
Question 5: Do you think gold will outperform Bitcoin through the end of 2025?
Answer: No
Question 6: How do you see bitcoins value stated in the future without being tied to any fiat? What would that look like
Answer: well like any money? It’s tied to goods and services
Question 7: Do you think Jerome Powell will lower interest rates soon, or will he get fired? What if they fire him? A new guy lowers the short end of the curve, but the world doesn’t want the long end.
Answer: I do think Jerome Powell will be forced to lower interest rates at some point.
Question 8: When do you think the u.s. Starts accumulating for their strategic Bitcoin reserve?
Answer: You know I’ve been thinking about this recently um I think there’s just too much going on right now to be honest I would say we’ll probably hear follow-up remarks At the end of this year if I had to guess I’m just speculating. I don’t have any insider information to be honest
Question 9: Thoughts on circle USDC and a Trojan horse for CBC.
Answer: I just I Think personally, I don’t understand circles business at all
Question 10: What would happen to Bitcoin and Bitcoin mining if through some amazing innovation energy became a million times cheaper?
Answer: Well, I’ve always considered, sorry, we’re transitioning to Bitcoin and energy questions now. I’ve always considered mining an incredibly difficult business. Very, very difficult.
Question 11: I finally read the BTC white paper. Wow, I love that for you. Can you explain how each owner transfers the coin to the next by digitally signing a hash of the previous transaction in the public key of the next owner?
Answer: I can’t explain it. I’m not entirely sure what you’re looking for here.
Question 12: I worry that what MSTR and other corporations are doing is ruining what Bitcoin is/was supposed to be. Also so much concentrated control. What are your thoughts?
Answer: Well, I am the co-founder and CEO of the third largest Sorry, that was super weird. I don’t know why that just started playing. I’m the co-founder and CEO of the third largest corporate treasury in the world. I obviously disagree with this.
Question 13: strike lending. How come I hear that you have loans as low as 10k, but I only see 46k in the strike app?
Answer: Because the lending laws in the United States vary by state.
Question 14: I’ve heard you say that you spend on credit cards and then get a loan against your Bitcoin to pay the bill.
Answer: That’s true. I do do that
Question 15: Have you ever found yourself feeling BTC burnout? like I’ve obsessed too much and almost feel like I need to step back
Answer: I’m not going to say yes to that, but you know balance in life is important.
People and Organizations Mentioned
- Jack Mallers: Host of the Jack Mallers Show and proponent of Bitcoin.
- Donald Trump: Former U.S. President, mentioned in the context of trade negotiations with China and tariffs.
- Xi Jinping: President of China, mentioned in the context of trade negotiations with the U.S.
- Bloomberg: News organization that published an article about China’s leverage in rare earth mineral trade.
- Ford Motor Company: Car manufacturer mentioned as being affected by rare earth mineral shortages.
- Suzuki Motor Corporation: Car manufacturer mentioned as being affected by rare earth mineral shortages.
- Elon Musk: CEO of Tesla, mentioned as having his robotics business affected by rare earth mineral shortages.
- Hibi Chen: Analyst at Vantage Markets, quoted in the Bloomberg article about China’s trade leverage.
- Marco Rubio: U.S. Senator, discussed the importance of industrial capacity and rare earth minerals in a video clip.
- European Central Bank (ECB): Central bank of the Eurozone, reported on gold surpassing the euro as the second largest reserve asset.
- Mohammed El-Erian: Professor and economist, tweeted about the unusual behavior of U.S. treasuries as a safe haven asset.
- Joe Biden: Current U.S. President, mentioned in relation to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Luke Gromen: Provided inspiration for a chart shown on the show comparing performance of bonds, gold, and Bitcoin.
- Kamala Harris: Current U.S. Vice President, mentioned in relation to Joe Biden’s election campaign.
- Jerome Powell: Chair of the Federal Reserve, discussed in relation to interest rates and monetary policy.
- Senator Lummis: U.S. Senator, known for her work on the Bitcoin Act.
- Circle: Company behind the USDC stablecoin.
- Coinbase: Cryptocurrency exchange platform mentioned in relation to Circle’s USDC integration.
- Tether: Company behind the USDT stablecoin.
- Satoshi Nakamoto: Pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): Company known for its large Bitcoin holdings.
- Larry Fink: CEO of BlackRock, mentioned in relation to Wall Street’s involvement in Bitcoin.
- Lavinia: Live editor for the Jack Mallers Show.